March 18, 2009

The Popping Derivatives "Bubble"
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The quadrillion dollar derivatives meltdown continues at an escalating pace around the world. Again, a quadrillion (plus or minus another 125 to 500 Trillion up to as high as 1,500 trillion) is 1,000 trillion dollars. 

If you start with a million dollars, please multiply it times 1,000. Then, please take that number and multiply by another 1,000. Then, please take that new number and multiply by another 1,000 (1,000,000 x 1,000 x 1,000 x 1,000). This new number will then be a quadrillion.

Or counting one dollar per second, it will take you 32 million years to count to a quadrillion. The size of this number is stagerring when compared with the current size of assets around the world. For example, here are the most current 2009 asset sizes:

* Annual U.S. GNP (Gross National Product): $14.2 Trillion.
* Entire U.S. Money Supply: $15 Trillion.
* U.S. Stock Markets Combined: $15 Trillion.
* All Residential Real Estate Combined (USA): $23 Trillion.
* Combined Value of All Stock Markets In The World: $50 Trillion.
* The Combined Value Of All Real Estate On The Planet: $75 Trillion.
* All Of The World's Stock & Bond Markets Combined: $100 Trillion.

The unwinding of these 1,000 to 1,500 Trillion derivatives around the world which may also, sadly, be leveraged up to 95% on margin (or borrowed) money is what The Credit Crisis is all about now. Derivatives are really just glorified complex debt instruments (a hybrid of financial and insurance). 

Remember, derivatives are what forced Orange County, CA to file for bankruptcy in 1994 (Merrill Lynch's interest rate options derivatives), wiped out Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, collapsed Long Term Capital Management (in 1998 - the largest hedge fund collapse at the time which almost took down the world's financial system - See Video #2 on this same website), and also caused the implosion of both Enron and Worldcom.

When the current debt levels far exceed the current asset levels here in the U.S. and around the world, then we may have some turbulent financial markets as we all are beginning to see more and more each day.


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