March 9, 2009

Dow 4,000 By Summer?
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The Daily Telegraph's International Business Editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (one of the UK's largest & most respected newspapers) is predicting a 4,000 Dow Jones index level by this Summer. The primary reasons for the predicted meltdown in the equities markets are due the increasing job losses worldwide, decreased consumer spending and increasing negative consumer sentiment, and the rapid deflation of asset prices worldwide.

In addition, long term debt rates via U.S. Treasuries are continuing to increase which may make long-term 30 year fixed mortgage rates increase in spite of the Fed's zero percent (0%) short-term interest rate policies in recent months. 

I had forecast that I believed the Dow Jones index would hit 5,000 last Summer (2008) by this upcoming Spring 2009 (begins in a few weeks, and the lasts through June 21st). With the recent Dow losses as we currently hover near 6,500, we may just hit my forecasted mark of 5,000 in the very near term.

Hopefully, we don't hit 4,000 by this Summer (as forecast by Evans-Pritchard) or many investors will be hurt tremendously. Gold, Silver, and REO foreclosed properties may be the best investment in the near and long-term as many prime companies (Citibank, Ford, AIG, etc.) currently have individual stock prices near just $1 Dollar. 

How did so many of our once prominent U.S. companies effectively become "penny stocks"? The Credit Crisis continues to cause havoc around the world!!!

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