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December 2, 2009

Commercial Mortgage Defaults Rise
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According to Real Estate Econometrics, commercial mortgage default rates more than doubled to 3.4% in the 3rd quarter of this year. A year prior (3rd quarter 2008), commercial mortgage default rates for loans held by U.S. banks were close to 1.37%. In the 2nd quarter of 2009, commercial default rates were close to 2.88%.

Mortgage loans for commercial properties originated in 2006 and 2007 are experiencing the most significant shortfalls in current operating cash flow in relation to current debt-service obligations. Prices for most commercial properties nationwide have fallen close to 40% since the start of the ongoing Credit Crisis. Particularly hard hit are the regional retail shopping malls due to the drop in consumer spending.

Regional banks hold about 25% of all of their assets in some form of commercial real estate. As a result of price and rent declines coupled with increasing vacancy percentage rates, there should also be a lot less new commercial construction nationwide. The FDIC just released a report recently that noted that business loan requests had dropped to an all-time record low as fewer new businesses are starting up nationwide.

As a result of the ongoing and worsening Credit Crisis, lenders and property owners who wish to sell are discounting their prices significantly for much needed cash. We continue to search for the best bargain discounted prime commercial properties such as retail centers, hotels, office buildings, and other prime properties for our clients who are interested in buying and holding for the long term.

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November 20, 2009

Commercial Real Estate's Credit Crisis
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Commercial Real Estate sales are off now an incredibly scary 82% in 2009 (as compared with 2008). Two years ago, the total combined value of all commercial real estate nationwide was about $ 6.5 Trillion. Back then, the total estimated combined commercial loan balances were estimated to near a 3.5 Trillion dollar range.

Today, the total combined estimated value of all commercial real estate in America is now valued to be near the same $3.5 Trillion dollar combined outstanding commercial mortgage debt value. This now means that there is essentially NO NET EQUITY for all commercial properties combined in America as the current mortgage debt levels equal the current combined value levels.

Since commercial real estate values have plummeted since the start of the global financial meltdown in 2007, many of these existing commercial properties nationwide are now completely "upside down" with negative equity just like a high percentage of residential properties are right now.

If banks nationwide had to admit and acknowledge how bad their existing loan losses are right now, then there would be few (if any) large banks left. Since the 20 largest banks in America are now ALL technically insolvent partly due to their hundreds of trillions in off balance sheet derivatives investments (i.e. Credit Default Swaps, etc.), this worsening commercial real estate meltdown will only hurt banks even more along with their worsening residential portfolios.

We are actively working on numerous commercial property work-out transactions (hotels, apartments, construction, etc.) in which the existing lenders are slashing their loan balances, and selling their prime assets for a fraction of their outstanding loan balance values.

There are some incredible buying and brokerage deals (i.e. listings) for many of our affiliate clients and real estate brokers. For more information, please contact me direct.

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September 30, 2009

Yesterday Was The One Year Anniversary Of The Bank & Wall Street Collapse
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As many readers may remember, I accurately forecast the global stock meltdown (began the week of September 29th, 2008) last July 2008. I warned readers, friends, family, clients, and co-workers that I was absolutely certain the world's stock and financial markets would either freeze, collapse, or that the U.S. Dow Jones index would drop at least 20% in value during a two (2) week time period beginning the week of September 29th, 2008.

Several readers and friends took my advice to heart, and sold many of their financial stocks (especially Washington Mutual which collapsed during that same time period). I was also concerned about the implosion of various Wall Street firms like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch. I also suggested that both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would collapse or be taken over by the government several years ago as well.

Why did I pick the week of September 29th last year as the official start of the stock and banking meltdown (or really the acceleration of the Credit Crisis meltdown which officially began in August 2007)? I knew that the next scheduled derivatives exchange date was on September 30th, 2008 at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS - in Basil, Switzerland).

Since the Credit Crisis is primarily due to the melting down of derivatives like Credit Default Swaps, Collaterized Debt Obligations (CDOs - effectively pools of mortgage securities), and other complex financial derivatives which may be leveraged 30 to 50 times their true face amounts, I didn't think there would be any big buyers for these non-performing assets last September 30th.

I also knew that September and October tend to be the two worst months for stocks. If you remember Great Depression I, it began on October 29th, 1929. "Black Monday" was in October as well back in 1987. I am VERY CONCERNED about another major stock meltdown during this upcoming month of October (begins tomorrow).

What happened to the $750 billion in bailout money which was supposed to save the financial markets and help the end consumer? Why haven't the trillions of dollars in "emergency & anonymous loans" provided by the various lending facilities like the "Term Auction Facilities" helped banks lend more money to the borrowers who really need it?

The millions of properties currently in foreclosure nationwide continue to provide potential investment opportunities for those individuals who have the funds (direct or via 3rd party) to buy these properties. We continue to provide the most up to date foreclosure information in Southern California so if you would like some more information, please send me an email or call me today.

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September 14, 2009

Causes of The Credit Crisis
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Excess liquidity over the past decade is probably the main reason for the on-going and worsening derivatives meltdown worldwide. There was too much money chasing too many quality deals worldwide as well.

In addition, bank and Wall Street regulations were almost non-existent partly due to the repealing of The Glass-Steagall Act which had been in place since after end of The Great Depression (1929 - 1939). Glass-Steagall kept banks, insurance companies, and Wall Street investment firms separate in order the keep the financial markets healthy.

Once Glass-Steagall was repealed, the same firms (i.e. JP Morgan Chase, Citibank, Wells Fargo, etc.) were allowed to offer banking, insurance, and investment banking services. The once protective "divider" of potential financial implosions occuring simulataneously in insurance, banking, and Wall Street were sadly removed once Glass-Steagall was voided. This, in turn, increased the likelihood of a "daisy-chain" financial "house of cards" potentially hurting the banking, insurance, and Wall Street industries at the same time.

Also, the bond ratings agencies (i.e. S & P, Moody's, etc.) provided absurd AAA ratings for sub-prime and prime mortgage bonds leveraged up to 100%. These high credit ratings (AAA is the equivalent of a U.S. Treasury Bond - considered the safest investment in the world) were improperly given to these risky prime and sub-prime mortgage pools.

These AAA ratings attracted investors from around the world to buy this mortgage paper which later ended up being almost worthless. Many European, Asian, and American investors believed that the risks were "minimal" in the mortgage pools since they were rated as AAA. Also, the high rates and yields offered (8%+) were very attractive to individuals, hedge and private equity funds, mutual funds, and even governments around the world.

As few independent firms now remain on Wall Street since the financial implosion last September (2008) as well as far back as August 2007 (the "official" start of The Credit Crisis), we now are in the midst of the traditionally "scary" Wall Street months of September and October (traditionally the 2 worst months on Wall Street).

As the S & P 500 index is up an insane 70% over the past 7 months during this on-going worldwide depression, I suggest that investors consider taking their phantom gains now before the Wall Street meltdown begins literally any day.

We can offer foreclosure investments for literally cents on the dollar as an alternative investment option. For more information, please contact me through this same website.

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September 3, 2009

Is The Stock Market Set To Fall Very Soon?
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What has been the total return to investors in the S & P 500 Index (the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market) over the past 12 years? The answer is ZERO.

Amazingly, the same S & P 500 index is up almost 70% over the past six (6) months in spite of the on-going global depression happening worldwide. How can the stock market be up so dramatically in such a short period of time especially since unemployment numbers keep worsening, retail sales keep collapsing, and the overall real estate market numbers don't seem very inspiring either here in California or nationwide?

The answer, my friends, is that the stock market is rigged. It is not a true capitalistic exchange entity as many of us were lead to believe. The government and a select few of private entities are actually the bulk buyers and sellers of stocks these days.

For example, five (5) stocks (according to Kitco) currently account for 40% of all trading activity these days on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange). These stocks include Citigroup, CIT Group, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and AIG. Essentially, each one of these companies is bankrupted as their debts far exceed their current overall assets.

Also, computerized trading via the controversial High Frequency Trading Programs (HFTP) control almost 70% of all current stock transactions as well. Once these manipulated computer trading programs stop buying and selling stocks on Wall Street, then I expect the Dow Jones to plummet in the very near term (i.e. September through the end of October).

A wise investor may consider liquidating their current stock investments in these primarily worthless companies NOW before the traditional September and October stock meltdown begins. My long-time readers may remember that I predicted the worldwide stock meltdown EXACTLY during the week of September 29, 2009 several months before it actually happened thanks to a lot of research.

The best investments these days are foreclosured properties for cents on the dollar. A savvy investor may consider selling their overvalued stocks now before the Dow plunges to 5,000 or 6,000 in the very near term as the numbers make no sense whatsoever to remain heavily invested in stocks.

Would you rather own a stock for $50,000 (which may plunge to ZERO), or a foreclosed home for $50,000 which was once valued at $300,000? You can always live in the home, or rent it out as opposed to owning potentially valueless stock certificates.


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August 25, 2009

The Federal Reserve Must Release Their Financial Data & The FDIC Report May Be Released Today!!!
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As I have written for years, the FDIC has been underfunded and bankrupt for too long. Sadly, the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.) was set up shortly after the end of the last Great Depression (1929 - 1939) to "insure" bank accounts for customers throughout our great nation.

Since our banking system is actually considered a "Fractional Reserve System" as banks lend out up to 20 to 50 times the actual amount of their deposited funds via leveraged consumer, business, and real estate loans, the safety of our money in banks throughout America is potentially at greater risk than ever before in the history of American banking.

Remember, most banks maintain at or near ZERO PERCENT cash reserves in their respective bank branches. Sadly, most of these cash reserves are held in the form of ATM or minimal bank vault money. Historically, most banks used to maintain anywhere between 3% to 10% of their funds as "cash reserves" (or cash on hand).

Today, the FDIC may release their 2nd Quarter report if they don't delay it for "special reasons" (i.e. the report is so negative that they don't want to cause a massive run on the banks for deposits). Within this anticipated FDIC report, they may list numerous banks which they deem as "bad banks". Many financial analysts are predicting over 100+ banks may be taken over by the government in the near term as they are technically insolvent.

In addition, the Federal Reserve must release (based upon a Federal Judg's ruling) the list of all of their anonymous loans to big banks, investment banks, and other businesses since last Fall via their eleven (11) different anonymous lending "auctions".

These emergency lending facilities include The Term Auction Facility and The Term Securities Lending Facility. According to the Federal Judge, the Fed must release their billions or trillions in emergency loans by the end of this week or early next week.

As a result of both the release of the Federal Reserve's emergency loans to lenders as well as the anticipated negative FDIC report, I expect many banks to be taken over in the near term. I also expect many banks to be forced to liquidate or sell off their prime assets (i.e. real estate properties and mortgages) for whatever price they can get for the much needed cash.

We will continue to search for the best upcoming foreclosure deals for our clients as banks may be forced to take just about any price possible in the near term. How does 5 to 10 cents on the dollar for a prime Southern California home sound to you?

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August 19, 2009

The FDIC Releases Their Next Financial Report On August 25th!!!!
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The technically insolvent FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) releases their next scheduled financial report next Tuesday (August 25th). Many financial analysts are anticipating a very negative financial report. In addition, numerous banks are expected to fail in the very near term beginning as soon as this Friday (August 21st).

Since Washington Mutual (the largest takeover in American banking history) collapsed last September (as I accurately forecast years in advance), they effectively bankrupted the FDIC last September. Last Friday, Colonial Bank (based in Alabama and Florida) was taken over by the Feds. It was a $25 billion dollar bank, the largest bank takeover since WAMU, and the 5th largest bank takeover in U.S. history.

As I have warned my readers, clients, family, and friends for years, The Credit Crisis is on-going and only worsening. The banking system (a Fractional Reserve System) encourages banks to maintain close to ZERO PERCENT cash reserves while loaning their deposit money out via incredible leverage (10 - 50+ times).

Most large U.S. banks are also technically insolvent these days. As a result, I am expecting numerous bank failures this Fall (beginning within a few days). I also foresee banks unloading their prime real estate at literally cents on the dollar in the near term in order to generate much needed cash.

We know how to find the best foreclosed properties for our clients. To take advantage of the worsening Credit Crisis instead of being hurt by it, please contact me for more details. Smart investors these days are pulling some to much of their money out of the U.S. stock market since the total average return over the past 12 years in the broad based S & P 500 stock index was ZERO PERCENT.

I am expecting all stock indexes to plummet in both September and October. Over the past 5 months, the S & P 500 index INCREASED 50% during our on-going Credit Crisis. These high returns will not last, and wise investors may consider cashing out at the peak and investing in their funds in heavily discounted real estate in the near term.

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August 18, 2009

Postponed Foreclosures Graph
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In the 2nd week of August (Aug. 10th - 14th, 2009), there were almost 82% of all properties which were postponed for final Trustee's Auction Sale in the four (4) major Southern California counties of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino.

The primary reasons for the typically unilateral (by the lenders in most cases) postponements of the scheduled final Trustee's Auction sales is that many lenders do not want to acknowledge how bad their non-performing losses are right now. In addition, they do not want to drive down current real estate values even more by flooding the market with thousands of additional properties.

Also, many lenders have received government bailout loans in recent months. As a result, these same lenders may not be as motivated to take back the properties right now as they may be hopeful that future government bailouts may actually purchase their existing non-performing mortgage loans for a higher price.

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August 5, 2009

WOW!!! 12,690 Properties Are Scheduled For Final Foreclosure Sale Just This Week (4 So. Calif. Counties)
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According to our"Find and Fund" Foreclosure Analysis System, there are approximately 12,690 properties scheduled for final Trustee's Sale Foreclosure Auction (at the court steps) just this week alone (Monday, August 3rd - Friday, August 7th) in just four (4) Southern California conties (Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino).

Our system forecasts that between 70% to 75% will be UNILATERALLY postponed by the foreclosing lender as lenders are trying to pace the high number of foreclosured properties statewide. Lenders do not want to flood the market with too many foreclosed properties all at once. If they do this, then home values may plummet even more.

Our "Find and Fund" Foreclosure System not only helps our clients find the best deals with the most equity (50%+ in some cases), but it lets our clients know many times how low the UNPUBLISHED opening bid prices will be even on the day of the Auction Sale.

In addition and more importantly, our foreclosure analysis system continues to track these thousands of postponed foreclosed properties so our clients are ready the next time the properties go to sale. Most investors give up on a property once it has been postponed even just once. As a result, many of these postponed properties eventually become ever better deals as there is less competition or interest in these homes.

Please call or email us for more details on how to profit from the on-going and worsening Credit Crisis.

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August 4, 2009

California Foreclosure Data: Week of July 27th - July 31st, 2009
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Listed below is all of the foreclosure data compiled by our "Find and Fund" Foreclosure system in just last week along (July 27th - July 31st) in three counties (Los Angeles, Orange, and Riverside).

There were 870 cancelled, short sale, or loan modifications completed in the three (3) counties listed above. There were 1053 properties which had no bidders at the final Trustee's Auction Sales.

As a result, these same 1053 properties reverted back to their respective foreclosing bank as an REO (Real Estate Owned). These same properties will most likely be listed with real estate agents at or near current market value prices.

289 properties were sold to third (3rd) party bidders or investors last week in those same three (3) counties. The average discounted purchase price paid (according to our detailed and up to date "Find and Fund" Foreclosure System) was 30% below the most current, conservative market value.

The combined market value of these 289 properties purchased was approximately $81.5 million dollars. The combined estimated purchase price of these same 289 properties was $57.1 million (a $24.4 million dollar price discount).

To find and fund the best foreclosure investments in Southern California, please call or email me today.


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