March 13, 2009 |
| Freddie Mac Lost $265 Million Per Day (& You Thought You Couldn't Balance Your Checkbook) |
Freddie Mac, one of the 2 largest mortgage servicers in the nation along with Fannie Mae, was bailed out and nationalized by the U.S. government along with Fannie last year. Effectively, these quasi-private secondary market investors are now owned and operated by the U.S. taxpayers via the U.S. Treasury. Sadly, their financial meltdown continues. Freddie Mac is now reporting that their liabilities (or debts) far exceed their assets. No kidding!!! They also may have trillions of dollars in "off balance sheet" derivatives investments which they are not even acknowledging at this point. This is one of the main reasons why OVER FIVE (5) YEARS AGO I said that both Fannie and Freddie were technically insolvent. Freddie Mac is now reporting that their loan portfolio dropped $120 billion in value in recent times. As a result, Freddie may have to "borrow" another $30 billion plus to stay afloat. Listed below are alleged losses by Freddie Mac by the calendar: * Full Quarter (3 months): $24 Billion. * Each Day: $265 Million. * Each Hour: $11 Million. * Each Minute: $184,000. * Each Second: $3,000. And you thought your credit card balances were too high!!!!!!!!!
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March 11, 2009 |
| The Collapsing World Economy Continues ...... |
As I tell my readers, friends, family, clients, and others, "I didn't want to be right" in regard to my accurate forecasts (as far back as 2004) in regard to the collapsing derivatives and financial markets worldwide. No, real estate, stocks, and bond values do NOT always go up in value as many of my disbelievers have told me in recent years. In 2008, the value of assets worldwide dropped approximately $50 trillion dollars in value. 2009 will be significantly worse for all asset classes (i.e. real estate, stocks, bonds, commoditites, etc.). Currently, the existing value of ALL stock markets around the world may be near $50 trillion. To put those numbers into perspective, the combined worldwide stock market values lost the equivalent of all of the world's stock market values in just one year ('08) (VANISHED INTO THIN AIR). I still expect the U.S. Dow Jones index to hit 5,000 or below within a few weeks to a few months. Yesterday's 200 plus increase was nothing but a "sucker's rally". I expect a major U.S. bank to be "nationalized", or formally taken over the the U.S. government as early as this Friday (Friday the 13th after 5 pm PST). Typically, banks are taken over on late Fridays so they have the entire weekend to work on "bailout". People, please understand the financial markets are only worsening both here in the U.S. and worldwide. Asset values are headed downward in almost every category (except maybe gold and silver), and hyperinflation is just around the corner (currency values drop due to the increase in printing of U.S. Dollars in order to bail everyone out). If you are "upside down" in your home, please contact me so we may help you cram down your debt or lower your payments. If you are an active investor, we have access to REO deals for "cents on the dollar". If you need a loan, please get one NOW as it will be much more difficult and much more expensive in the near term as long term mortgage rates continue to rise. Sorry for the bad news today!!! I try to be an optimist in life, but I have been researching this financial and economic information for too many years.
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March 9, 2009 |
| Dow 4,000 By Summer? |
The Daily Telegraph's International Business Editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (one of the UK's largest & most respected newspapers) is predicting a 4,000 Dow Jones index level by this Summer. The primary reasons for the predicted meltdown in the equities markets are due the increasing job losses worldwide, decreased consumer spending and increasing negative consumer sentiment, and the rapid deflation of asset prices worldwide. In addition, long term debt rates via U.S. Treasuries are continuing to increase which may make long-term 30 year fixed mortgage rates increase in spite of the Fed's zero percent (0%) short-term interest rate policies in recent months. I had forecast that I believed the Dow Jones index would hit 5,000 last Summer (2008) by this upcoming Spring 2009 (begins in a few weeks, and the lasts through June 21st). With the recent Dow losses as we currently hover near 6,500, we may just hit my forecasted mark of 5,000 in the very near term. Hopefully, we don't hit 4,000 by this Summer (as forecast by Evans-Pritchard) or many investors will be hurt tremendously. Gold, Silver, and REO foreclosed properties may be the best investment in the near and long-term as many prime companies (Citibank, Ford, AIG, etc.) currently have individual stock prices near just $1 Dollar. How did so many of our once prominent U.S. companies effectively become "penny stocks"? The Credit Crisis continues to cause havoc around the world!!!
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March 6, 2009 |
| FDIC May Need To "Borrow" Up To $500 Billion (1/2 A Trillion) |
There currently is a bill in the Senate proposing a "loan" to the FDIC (The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) of up to $500 Billion. Since the FDIC is the insurance fund which protects or insures against the potential losses of checking and savings accounts in many of our banks and other financial institutions nationwide, it is imperative that this same bank deposit insurance fund have adequate cash reserves to protect against any future bank losses. The collapse of Washington Mutual last Fall effectively "wiped out" the remaining cash reserves of the FDIC. The government, in turn, had to come in and bail out the FDIC after the failure of WAMU (the largest bank takeover in U.S. history). I forecast back in 2005 that I thought WAMU would eventually collapse due to their risky investments (on and off balance sheet investments), and their numerous risky loan options (stated option pay ARMS, stated lines of credit, high LTV construction and commercial loans, etc.). We are actively working with various banks and loan service companies in order to help our clients hopefully buy these same performing or non-performing assets (properties and notes) from the banks direct, loan service companies, and even the FDIC. There will be significant investment opportunities if you have the cash available (or access to third party cash) as banks, loan service companies, and the FDIC will need to sell their assets at any price possible in the near term in order to get much needed cash. Listed below is an update to one of our best loan products right now (The REO Pool Financing Program): * Prefer small to mid-sized residential REO portfolios ($1 to $10 million plus). * Target price discounts should be in the 60% (BPO) price range or below. * We may provide financing up to 70% of the total project costs. * Loans may be made to individuals, new LLCs, or new corporations. * Prefer median individual residential units (homes or condos) to be within the $150K to $250K price range. * Available Nationwide. For more information on money sources, please visit my other website at www.realloans.com.
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March 4, 2009 |
| VA Loans May Be The Best Residential Loan Option These Days |
For those 24.5 million American Veterans who have proudly served America in the armed forces, you may qualify for a 100% LTV (loan to value) VA loan up to $729,750 in some higher priced real estate markets like in parts of Southern California. The VA (Veterans Administration) doesn't actually make the loan directly to the borrower. They insure (or "guarantee") or promise to pay the actual lender if and when the property owner defaults at a later date. This "guarantee" of the residential mortgage effectively reduces the risk to the direct lender as it is backed by the "full faith" of the U.S. government. In some cases, borrowers with low FICO scores and high debt to income ratios may still qualify for up to 97% to 100% LTV financing. In certain refinances, the borrower may pull out a fair amount of cash as well. Cash out 1st and 2nd refinance loans are much more difficult to find these days so the VA "cash out" option is very appealing to many people now. If you currently have VA eligibility after serving in one of the major armed forces for the good old USA, then your best mortgage loan option may definitely be the high loan to value, and extremely low fixed rate VA mortgage loans. Our office is actively working on various VA loans for our clients so please give me a call if you have the eligible VA benefits. ** Please visit www.realloans.com for more details.
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March 2, 2009 |
| Dow Drops Below 7,000 Today For The First Time Since 1997 |
Sadly, the Dow Jones index has just broken below the 7,000 level this morning for the first time in 12 years (1997). As I had forecast as far back as Summer '08, I believed that the Dow Jones index would eventually hit below 5,000 by this upcoming Spring '09 (begins in just a few weeks - March 20th). Regardless of all of the various TARP bailout or Federal Reserve's anonymous lending facilities to banks, investment banks, insurance funds, and automobile companies, retail spending and stock values continue to plummet toward the "financial abyss". The government may be forced to "nationalize" more and more banks and entire industries in the near term in order to try to prevent the collapse of these various sectors. If the USA is forced to take over more companies like Citigroup, AIG, and many others, then the stock values for individual investors may fall to ZERO. The best investments these days may be hard assets like gold and silver. In addition, banks will be forced to liquidate their non-performing notes and real estate for literally cents on the dollar. We will continue to do our best to bring you these various investment opportunities which may be much safer and much better than the plunging U.S. stock and bond markets.
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February 27, 2009 |
| 2/3's Of U.S. Credit Is "Non-Bank Lending" |
I continue to get frustrated that the bulk of the mainstream media keep describing the Credit Crisis as some sort of offshoot of a sub-prime mortgage credit catalyst. As a percentage of the overall quadrillion (1,000 trillion+) dollar meltdown in the world's financial markets, sub-prime mortgage loans currently outstanding represent just a miniscule portion of the overall credit or debt worldwide. Hedge funds, private equity funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, pension funds, and other private investors (domestic and international) are the main "players" in the buying and selling of capital worldwide. When they add capital to the financial markets through the securitized debt instruments investments (CDOs, CDS, SIVs, etc.), then more banks and investment banks are willing to lend to third parties. Sadly, there has been almost zero activity in the securitized debt instruments markets over the past six (6) months. This marketplace is effectively and essentially CLOSED. This means that over 2/3s of our credit markets over the past 6 to 12 months is currently not open for business, or out of the market altogether. Regardless of all of the new capital that the Fed continues to throw at the markets (or "lend" to banks & Wall Street) on a daily basis (recently was at least $400 billion PER DAY), this money is still not enough to re-start the on-going PARALYSIS in our domestic and international markets. Hopefully, something may change in the near term which opens back up the "floodgates" to the financial markets.
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February 24, 2009 |
| Southern California Median Prices Down 50% + From 2007 Price Levels |
Recent studies show that the median priced home in Southern California is now close to $250,000. This is a drop in the median price of over 50% since peak levels in late 2007. Current median price levels are now near early 2002 prices. This means that we have "erased" six (6) years of price appreciation in recent times. In January of 2000, the median priced home in Southern California was near $209,000. As the rate of price depreciation continues to accelerate, we may soon see median price points last seen over nine (9) years ago. By region in Southern California, here are the current median prices: * San Bernardino: $162,000. * Riverside: $195,000. * Los Angeles: $300,000 (vs. a peak of $550,000 in Aug. '07). * Orange County: $370,000 (vs. a peak of $646,000 in Aug. '07). There are now some exceptional buying opportunities in the once pricey Southern California market region. We have the money sources readily available to buy one or hundreds of these distressed properties at prices even well below these incredibly low median prices. Please visit my other website at www.realloans.com for more financial details. Thank you.
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February 20, 2009 |
| Major U.S. Banks On The Verge Of "Nationalization". Who Warned About This Real Possibility Last Year? Me. |
The Socialization of America continues forward as I warned many of my readers over the years. As the Credit Crisis continues to lead us all toward the proverbial "financial abyss", which financial entities will be left standing later this year? Ironically, the U.S. banks which are the weakest are also the largest banks (Citibank, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, etc.). These banks each have tens of trillions to almost hundreds of trillions of dollars EACH in off-balance sheet derivative investments. To simplify, each of these financial institutions has potential losses far greater than the entire current net worth of their respective banks. As a result of the real possibility that Citibank, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and others are all on the verge of being formally taken over by the government, each of their respective stock values have plummeted even further. Will they all end up as "penny stocks" like AIG, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and many others? When your balance sheets show losses far greater than gains, you typically end up in Bankruptcy Court. When you are considered "too big to fail", then you are taken over by the U.S. government or the Federal Reserve. To those of you who doubted me last year (or as far back as 2004) in regard to my detailed, negative opinions about the world's financial markets and the possible "Socialization" of all of Wall Street and most of the largest American banks, I only have this to say to you - "I did not want to be right".
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February 19, 2009 |
| My Irish "Brothers" May Default On Their Debt |
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Since my name, Tobin, and my primary ancestry is of Irish descent, I do try to pay close attention to my "brothers" and "sisters" in Ireland. Sadly, the Irish may be on the verge of defaulting on their increasing national debt. In addition, several of the largest Irish banks may now be on the verge of complete failure (just like in the UK, USA, etc.).
The cost of buying insurance against Irish government bonds rose to record highs late last week as the prices almost tripled in one week. Debt market investors now list Ireland as "the most troubled economy in Europe".
The total current loans held in Irish banks are now almost 11 times the size of the entire Irish economy. Ireland is really just a small island with about 4 million residents. There are many more Americans of Irish descent (like me) than current residents on the beautiful "Emerald Isle".
I hope the Irish can stabilize their economy before they face a similar govermental meltdown which we recently saw in Iceland. Sadly, the U.S. goverment is in the worst financial shape of all nations on the planet.
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