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February 18, 2009

U.S. Obligations Exceed World's Entire GDP (Ouch!!!)
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As Congress tries to push through their latest $800 billion dollar economic stimulus package, most Americans don't realize that the true deficit amounts are measured in TRILLIONS. In fact, the current estimated U.S. federal budget deficit is estimated to be close to $65 TRILLION. This estimated $65 TRILLION currently exceeds the world's entire GDP (Gross Domestic Product). 

The combined total U.S. budget deficit obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits to be paid in the future, have effectively caused the USA government to be on the verge of BANKRUPTCY. 

2008's federal budget deficit was just over $5 Trillion (not the $455 billion as previously reported by the Congressional Budget Office), according to the 2008 Financial Report of the U.S. Government (released by the U.S. Treasury). 

As a result of our massive deficit losses, the Fed and Treasury will have to print money as fast as possible which "monetizes our debt and our Dollars". When you "monetize" debt, you create money "out of thin air" since our Dollar is a "fiat-based currency" (backed by no hard assets like gold or silver).

When you turn on the printing presses to full speed, you tend to diminish the current and future value of your own currency. This, in turn, typically leads to runaway HYPERINFLATION. 

With 46 of 50 U.S. States also currently running their own respective budget deficits, 2009 and beyond may cause us all a "bumpy ride" on the road to HYPERINFLATION and declining asset prices (an unprecedented economic combination which has never happened before simultaneously in the U.S.).

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February 17, 2009

"Dr. Doom" Says We Should Nationalize U.S. Banks
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Nouriel Roubini (aka "Dr. Doom") recently suggested that the U.S. government should nationalize all large U.S. banks. Roubini, the NYU professor, has probably been the most accurate forecaster of the on-going and downward spiraling Credit Crisis over the past decade. Have we hit the bottomless "abyss" as of of yet?

Since the USA has effectively already nationalized Wall Street, the automobile industry, the U.S. banking system, and the quadrillion (1,000 trillion dollars) derivatives industry to date. They may also be on the verge on nationalizing the entire insurance industry as the recent takeover of AIG (the largest insurance company in America) clearly illustrates how dire the insurance industry is these days as they have massive exposure to the derivatives (i.e. CDOs, CDS, SIVs, etc.) "meltdown" as well. 

Professor Roubini suggested that Congress may need to borrow an additional $1 to $1.25 TRILLION to bail out the largest banks (Citibank, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, etc.). These funds may be in addition to the $700 billion + recently set aside to "bail out" our banks already. 

I believe that these numbers are a joke!!! The largest banks and Wall Street investments banks have been "technically" insolvent for years as their exposure to "off balance sheet" investments far exceed their entire net worth. In many cases, these banks have "unrealized" losses of tens of trillions of dollars which now dwarf the current stock value of these same companies. 

If your debts far exceed your income and assets, then you are on your way to bankruptcy (or another government takeover). I have been writing this information for years, and more and more people are beginning to see and understand the same thing. The Credit Crisis is getting significantly WORSE now, and you need to begin to "wake up" to this fact. 

*** For money while there is any left to lend, please visit my other website at www.realloans.com

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February 9, 2009

Electronic "Run On The Banks" Almost Collapsed The World Banking System (Sept. '08)
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As reported by the very "mainstream" media outlet (C-SPAN), Congressman Paul Kanjorski (Pennsylvania) explained how the Federal Reserve told Congressional members about a "tremendous draw-down of money market accounts to the tune of $550 BILLION DOLLARS". 

What is most concerning about the withdrawing of over a 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS is that it happened within just an hour or two on September 15th, 2008 (the start of the 4th Fiscal Quarter).

All of this money was being withdrawn electronically. The U.S. Treasury was forced to step in and help with $150 billion. The U.S. Treasury also was forced to close down the accounts nationwide as they estimate that up to $5.5 Trillion may have been withdrawn within a 3 hour time period had the electonic withdrawals continued at the same pace. 

The Treasury was concerned that these massive electronic withdrawals had the potential to collapse the world economy. Just two weeks after this dire event, the Dow Jones index dropped over 20% in value within a two week time period as I had rightly predicted back in July '08.

Don't take lightly the severity of our on-going Credit Crisis. This event is potentially once in a lifetime and it may dwarf the problems associated with even The Great Depression.

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February 3, 2009

California Is Now Broke - The State, Not The People
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Good times!!!  California, the 7th or 8th largest economy in the world is now officially broke (and on the verge of Chapter 9 bankruptcy - 1st state EVER to possibly file for bankruptcy protection). 

California is faced with a $40 billion dollar budget deficit. As a result, residents will not be getting their state tax rebates, scholarships to Cal Grant colleges will go unpaid, and various county services will cease to exist. 

In addition, over $500 million to the state's vendors will go unpaid, and almost $280 million will not be paid to assist people with developmental disabilities. California is faced with a budget deficit which currently may exceed 35% of the total state general fund. What happened to all of the property tax, sales tax, state income tax, and lotto money???

Sadly, 46 total states in the U.S.A. face serious budget shortfalls. Many of these same states may be forced to file bankruptcy in 2009 or 2010. The on-going Credit Crisis continues to cause havoc here and around the world.

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January 30, 2009

A "Professional Run On Banks" May Be Underway
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Most Americans do not realize that foreign investors and large American equity funds control a large portion of U.S. bank accounts as well as our Treasury Bonds (or shorter term T-Bills). In recent times, many of these same domestic and international investors have begun to pull their money out of U.S. banks and investment banks. 

In addition, many foreign investors are converting their large holdings in U.S. Dollars into other currencies, or other hard assets like gold or silver. The U.S. Treasury may be forced to raise an additional $2 Trillion plus within the next six (6) months. Many foreign investors are currently holding their foreigh reserves (almost 65% in some estimates) in U.S. Dollars.

At present, the U.S. is currently offering ZERO interest rates for Treasury investments. When you factor in the cost of inflation, the real returns are NEGATIVE. Owners of U.S. debt (Treasuries) are actually losing close to 10% annually due to their holdings in U.S. Treasuries via our weakening U.S. Dollar.

Since both the Fed and the U.S. Treasury continue to "monetize" (create money out of "thin air" which is backed by no hard assets like gold or silver) the U.S. debt in order to bail out Wall Street, the automobile industry, most major U.S. banks, and everyone else seemingly on the planet except the struggling U.S. homeowner, then we will continue to see rampant Hyperinflation in the near term. 

This Hyperinflation may mean a continually weakening U.S. Dollar combined with falling U.S. asset prices. This is a dangerous and unprecedented financial and economic condition which has never happened before in the great nation of America.


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January 30, 2009

46 of 50 States May Be Near Bankruptcy
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At least 46 American states have high budget deficits, and may be forced to file Chapter 9 bankruptcy either this year or next (2010). Arizona and California continue to be two of the hardest hit states. Each of these states may completely run out of cash within the next few months.

Many important programs and benefits may be cut in the very near term in many of these states. In addition, state and sales income taxes may be raised to help offset the mounting budget problems. At some point, states may start defaulting on their bond payments which may, in turn, force the various bond credit ratings agencies (S & P, Moody's, etc.) to downgrade their ratings to "near junk" or "below junk" status. 

These potential credit downgrades may then increase the borrowing costs for states. This will, in turn, worsen their respective state budget deficits even further. What a vicious "downward cycle" this is creating. 

In the history of the United States of America, no state had ever filed for bankruptcy protection in the past. Now, there is the real potential that the majority of American states may soon potentially file for bankruptcy protection. What happened to all of the property tax and state lotto money???

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January 28, 2009

Nouriel Roubini ("Dr. Doom") Says That U.S. Stocks May Fall 20%
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Nouriel Roubini (aka "Dr. Doom") said today that U.S. stocks may fall 20% in the near term because "the corporate and economic news will be worse than expected". 

Dr. Roubini also said that more Americans will soon realize that most major banks are bankrupt (as I have said and written for the past few years). These insolvent financial institutions (banks and the few remaining investment banks on Wall Street) will then be forced to sell more assets for much needed cash. 

The potential new glut of major asset sales may, sadly, drive down the demand for these complex financial assets (derivatives such as CDOs, Credit Default Swaps, Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs), etc.). This may create a "vicious downward cycle" which may drive asset prices down, and force more banks to become insolvent. 

I have been following Dr. Roubini for years. He, and Dr. Martin Weiss, have probably been the most accurate financial and investment forecasters for the past ten or twenty plus years. Dr. Weiss is much more bearish than even "Dr. Doom" himself on the state of the U.S. and world economies.

I still hold firm to my belief that the Dow Jones index may hit 5,000 by this upcoming summer. Thanks a lot, "Credit Crisis"!!!

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January 27, 2009

Great Britain's Banks Were Hours Away From Collapsing Last Year, U.S. Banks Are In Worse Shape
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"Britain was just three hours away from going bust last year after a secret run on the banks, one of Gordon Brown's (the U.K. Prime Minister) Ministers has revealed", according to The Daily Mail (a well known London publication).

On Friday, October 10th (according to the same article), Britain's entire banking system almost collapsed partly due to a "bank run" for major and minor depositers who attempted to withdraw their funds en masse. The demand for funds was so swift and so massive that all major banks seriously considered shutting down their doors and cancelling all electronic withdrawals that same day in order to keep their bank customers from withdrawing their money. 

The British government almost was forced to nationalize (or socialize) their entire financial banking system in order to protect a potential "domino effect" of bank after bank falling down which, in turn, would cause other banks to collapse as well. 

Sadly, the British government is in the process of nationalizing the once prominent Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). Rumors abound that Lloyd's of London, HSBC, HBOS, and many other prominent British conglomerants may need to be nationalized soon as well. 

According to many well known and respected financial analysts here in America, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JP Morgan are in potentially the worst financial shape of any financial entities on the planet. For example (according to Martin Weiss, one of my favorite long-time financial writers who I have followed for 20 years), Bank of America and Citibank have potentially $78 trillion in outstanding derivative investments (a hybrid of glorified financial and insurance "bets"). This exposure to risky derivatives is almost ten (10) times the exposure that Lehman Brothers had just prior to their recent bankruptcy. 

Remember, many of these derivative investments now have an actual current market value of just "cents on the dollar" due to the worsening Credit Crisis. The face amount of this $78 trillion in derivatives investments may now only have a current market values of less than 2% to 10% of the original "value". 

As I have written about for years, The Credit Crisis is really all about the unwinding of the complicated derivatives market worldwide estimated to be somewhere in the Quadrillion (1,000 Trillion) to a Quadrillion and a half (1,500 Trillion) range. It is not just a "sub-prime mortgage problem" as portrayed by some in the mainstream media.

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January 21, 2009

Financial Stocks Tumble Worldwide
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Financial stocks over the past week have fallen sharply both here in the United States as well as in the United Kingdom. Just yesterday (Tues., Jan. 21st), the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) reported that their 2008 losses may exceed $41.3 billion. 

As a result of their negative numbers, RBS' stock dropped 70%. Many financial analysts now believe that the UK government may have to completely nationalize or takeover the bank before it completely collapses.

State Street Corporation's stock values dropped 59% just yesterday partly due to the RBS information. In addition, Citigroup fell 20%, and Bank of America dropped 29%. The combined shrinking value of total bank stocks listed in the Standard & Poor's 500 index now represents only 10% of the S & P 500 index. This is the lowest combined S & P value percentage since 1992.

The implosion of banking stocks combined with banks' need for much valued cash will mean that they will liquidate their real estate and other hard asset holdings anyway possible in the near term. As a result, we expect to see many excellent REO foreclosure investment opportunites. 

For more information, please continue to look at the various tabs on this website. For information regarding ways to find money, please visit my other website at www.realloans.com.

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January 9, 2009

REO Pool Financing Updates
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As the on-going Credit Crisis continues to cause our planet's economies to plummet even further than thought possible by most people (except me), we are focusing more of our efforts on providing our clients with the best access to REO pools nationwide as well as the best financing options to purchased these distressed REO pools.

Banks and mortgage service companies are in such dire financial shape these days that they have to unload their prime real estate assets in order to generate much needed cash. The sharpest investors are buying many of these assets for a fraction of the most recent conservative value. 

Many REO pool investors are using all cash to purchase these REO pool discounts. However, more real estate investors need third party financing in order to buy these REO pools. Here are some of the updated REO pool financing options which we are now offering in most states:

* We prefer small to mid-sized residential REO pools.
* Target price discounts should be in the 60% range from the existing note amount or the most conservative recent valuations.
* REO pool loan amount range from $1 million to $8 million plus (much larger loan amounts may be available depending upon the deal).
* We may leverage your purchase up to 70% of the total project cost.
* Prefer that the individual homes be priced in the $150,000 to $250,000 range, and that the proposed rents be in the $1,500 per month range.
* Single family homes and condos depending upon the market region.
* The loan product may be available nationwide now.
* The borrower may be an LLC, Ltd. partnership, or a corporation.
* Blanket loans with partial release clauses built-in so you may sell or refinance individual properties as you desire.
* Loan terms up to 3 years.
* Rates will vary depending upon the deal and the borrower. Call me for details.

The investment opportunities available in 2009 may be unprecedented. Do you want to be "on the right side" of the financial meltdown by prospering, or do you want to be "on the wrong side" as many Amercians sadly may be this year?

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